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Mizuho: Bitcoin Price and Coinbase Volumes Display Unusual Decoupling

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Coinbase Faces Decoupling of Bitcoin Price and Trading Volumes, Mizuho Reports

Mizuho analysts suggest that Coinbase, the popular crypto exchange, is experiencing the negative impact of investor apathy in this year's crypto market. Historically, Coinbase's trading volume has been closely tied to the price movements of bitcoin. However, this correlation has been unraveling since the beginning of the year, according to Mizuho managing director Dan Dolev. He describes this decoupling as a "stark" and "likely unprecedented" phenomenon.

Decreasing Trading Volumes

Dolev highlights that while bitcoin's price has been on the rise, with an average of $28,500 in the third quarter, Coinbase's trading volumes have been declining. In the first quarter, trading volumes stood at $145 billion, which dropped to $92 billion in the second quarter, and are projected to reach $80 billion in the third quarter. This decline in trading volumes suggests potential fatigue among retail customers, as the fear of missing out (FOMO) no longer drives them to trade bitcoin when prices rise, as it did in previous cycles.

Concerns for Coinbase

Given that retail customers account for 95% of Coinbase's trading revenue, Mizuho expresses concerns about the sustainability of the year-to-date rise in Coinbase's stock. They anticipate a reality check to follow, leading them to maintain their underperform rating and $27 price target on Coinbase shares.

Market Conditions and Institutional Influence

The spike in daily trading volumes that followed Grayscale's victory against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on August 30 has since faded. September's average daily trading volumes are tracking 25% below August levels. While bitcoin's price has remained stagnant in recent weeks, the market suffers from low liquidity and volume, causing rallies to falter. Some experts on Wall Street suggest that the next cycle in the crypto market will be driven by institutions rather than retail investors. However, this shift may lead to a slower takeoff as the industry and policymakers lay the groundwork for institutional involvement. In conclusion, the decoupling of bitcoin's price and Coinbase's trading volumes raises concerns about the impact of investor apathy on the popular crypto exchange. The decline in trading volumes and the changing dynamics of the market pose challenges for Coinbase's future performance. As the industry evolves and institutional involvement becomes more prominent, the landscape of the crypto market may undergo significant transformations.

Conclusion: Implications for New Businesses in the Crypto Market

The decoupling of bitcoin price and trading volumes on Coinbase, as reported by Mizuho, offers a crucial insight for new businesses entering the crypto market. The changing dynamics of the market, characterized by investor apathy and decreasing retail trading volumes, suggest a shift in market behavior that new businesses must acknowledge.

Adapting to Market Shifts

As the correlation between bitcoin price and trading volumes unravels, new businesses need to adapt their strategies. This might involve diversifying their offerings or focusing on other cryptocurrencies that may be less influenced by investor fatigue.

Understanding Market Behavior

The decline in trading volumes suggests a potential fatigue among retail customers. New businesses should consider this when developing their marketing and customer engagement strategies. They may need to find innovative ways to stimulate customer interest and maintain trading volumes.

Preparing for Institutional Involvement

The anticipation of increased institutional involvement in the crypto market could also influence new business strategies. Preparing for a slower market takeoff and laying the groundwork for institutional involvement could be key for new businesses to succeed in this evolving landscape. In conclusion, the decoupling of bitcoin price and Coinbase trading volumes signals a shift in the crypto market. New businesses must adapt to these changes and prepare for a future where institutional involvement becomes more prominent.
Story First Published at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/12/bitcoin-price-and-coinbase-volumes-are-showing-a-rare-decoupling-mizuho-says.html
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