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Investor Sentiment: 2023 Gain Seen as Bear Market Bounce, Expectations of Recession in 2024, CNBC Survey Reveals

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Wall Street Investors Remain Cautious as Recession Risks Loom

According to the latest investor survey conducted by CNBC Delivering Alpha, a majority of Wall Street investors are not finding comfort in the gains seen in the stock market for 2023. Instead, they believe that the market could experience further retreat as the risk of a recession becomes more apparent. The survey, which involved 300 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers, and CNBC contributors, aimed to gauge their sentiments on the market for the remainder of 2023 and beyond.

Market Outlook: Bear Market Bounce or New Bull Market?

More than 60% of respondents in the survey view the stock market's gains this year as merely a bear market bounce, indicating their concerns about the future. On the other hand, 39% of investors believe that we are already in a new bull market. The S&P 500 has experienced a decline of over 5% this month alone, significantly reducing its 2023 gains to 11%. Several factors have contributed to this struggle, including the Federal Reserve's indication of higher interest rates, a rally in crude oil prices, and a 10-week winning streak in the dollar.

Recession Expectations and Interest Rate Speculations

When asked about the likelihood of a recession, 41% of survey respondents anticipate one in the middle of 2024, while 23% believe it will arrive later than 12 months from now. Only 14% expressed confidence that a recession is not on the horizon. Ares Management CEO Michael Arougheti commented on the market's signals, suggesting that investors should brace themselves for another interest rate hike or two. The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged for now but has forecasted one more hike before the year ends. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also emphasized the increased likelihood of more rate hikes due to the recent surge in oil prices, which could potentially lead to inflationary pressures. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon echoed these concerns, warning that interest rates could rise significantly in the future. As the market grapples with uncertainties and the potential for a recession, investors and market participants must carefully navigate these challenging conditions. The outlook for the remainder of 2023 remains uncertain, and it is crucial for individuals to stay informed and adapt their investment strategies accordingly.

Implications of Wall Street's Cautious Outlook for New Businesses

As Wall Street investors express caution amid looming recession risks, new businesses must navigate these uncertain waters with care. The recent survey by CNBC Delivering Alpha reveals that a majority of investors are not reassured by the stock market's gains in 2023, instead foreseeing potential further retreats.

Market Dynamics: Impact on Business Formation

The survey's findings, which indicate that over 60% of respondents view the current market gains as merely a bear market bounce, highlight the potential challenges new businesses may face. The S&P 500's decline of over 5% this month alone, coupled with factors such as higher interest rates, a rally in crude oil prices, and a strong dollar, suggest a turbulent environment for business formation and growth.

Recession Risks and Rising Interest Rates

The survey's revelation that 41% of respondents anticipate a recession by mid-2024, with another 23% expecting it later than 12 months from now, underscores the need for new businesses to prepare for potential economic downturns. Comments from industry leaders like Ares Management CEO Michael Arougheti, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon further emphasize the likelihood of more interest rate hikes, which could impact business financing and overall economic conditions. In essence, the cautious outlook of Wall Street investors, shaped by potential recession risks and market dynamics, presents a complex landscape for new businesses. It underscores the need for careful planning, risk management, and adaptability in business strategies as 2023 unfolds.
Story First Published at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/investors-see-2023-gain-as-a-bear-market-bounce-and-expect-a-recession-next-year-cnbc-survey-shows.html
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