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ECB's Vujcic: Euro-Zone Soft Landing is the Central Scenario

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ECB Can Achieve Price Stability with Minimal Economic Impact, Says Governing Council Member

According to Boris Vujcic, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, the ECB can successfully restore price stability without causing significant harm to the economy, although some uncertainty remains. Vujcic stated that if current projections materialize, a "soft landing" can be achieved, avoiding a recession and a substantial increase in unemployment. However, he acknowledged that the outcome is not guaranteed and emphasized the need to remain prepared for potential challenges. Euro-zone inflation recently slowed to 2.9%, down from a peak of over 10%, following the ECB's decision to raise borrowing costs. The central bank has cautioned that reaching the 2% target remains challenging, and the economy faces the risk of a shallow recession after a contraction in the previous quarter. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas poses additional uncertainty, with potential implications for energy costs. Vujcic noted that the impact on the euro-area economy is difficult to predict at this time but emphasized the importance of monitoring developments and responding accordingly. He also mentioned that it is premature to consider rate cuts, but the ECB must be prepared for various scenarios based on incoming data in 2024.

Hot Take: The ECB's Price Stability Efforts and Implications for New Businesses

The European Central Bank's (ECB) ability to restore price stability with minimal economic impact, as suggested by Governing Council member Boris Vujcic, could have significant implications for new businesses. If the ECB's current projections materialize, the euro-zone could avoid a recession and a substantial increase in unemployment, creating a more favorable environment for business growth and expansion. However, the uncertainty surrounding these projections underscores the need for new businesses to remain flexible and prepared for potential economic challenges.

Impact of Inflation and Geopolitical Conflicts

The recent slowdown in euro-zone inflation, coupled with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, adds another layer of complexity for new businesses. While lower inflation could reduce the cost of borrowing, geopolitical conflicts could increase energy costs, affecting businesses' operational expenses. New businesses need to monitor these developments closely and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Preparation for Various Economic Scenarios
Vujcic's emphasis on the need for the ECB to prepare for various scenarios based on incoming data in 2024 serves as a reminder for new businesses to do the same. By staying informed about economic trends and potential risks, new businesses can make more informed decisions, mitigate risks, and seize opportunities in a dynamic economic landscape.
Story First Published at: https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/euro-zone-soft-landing-is-central-scenario-ecbs-vujcic-says
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