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Earnings Trough for This Cycle Likely Reaches, Indicating Positive Signs for Stocks

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Positive Outlook for Earnings as Economy Shows Signs of Improvement

Investors can expect a positive change in earnings going forward, according to analysis by Bank of America. The bank's research, which considered the evolving expectations of Wall Street analysts and historical data, suggests that the recent poor second-quarter earnings results will likely be the lowest point in this cycle. BofA strategist Savita Subramanian noted that expectations for 2023 have stabilized, revisions have turned positive, and the global revision ratio indicates a risk-on sentiment. Additionally, strong macro data and favorable seasonal trends point to limited downside risk for 2023 earnings.

Declining Earnings and Potential Trough

FactSet data reveals that S&P 500 earnings experienced an average decline of over 4% in the second quarter compared to the same period the previous year. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of declining profits and the largest year-over-year drop since the second quarter of 2023. However, the report suggests that unless there is a collapse in demand, the second quarter is likely to represent the trough in earnings.

Projected Growth and Optimism

Wall Street analysts currently project a slight increase in earnings for S&P 500 companies for the full year 2023, as reported by FactSet. Furthermore, they anticipate a significant growth of 12.2% in earnings for the following year. In conclusion, the analysis by Bank of America provides an optimistic outlook for earnings, indicating that the recent poor second-quarter results may represent the lowest point in this cycle. With expectations stabilizing and positive revisions, coupled with strong macro data and favorable seasonal trends, investors can anticipate an improvement in earnings going forward. However, it is essential to monitor market conditions and evolving economic factors to gain a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks and opportunities in the coming months.

Implications for New Businesses

The optimistic outlook for earnings, as suggested by Bank of America's analysis, has significant implications for new businesses.

Understanding Market Trends

Firstly, it underscores the importance of understanding market trends and economic cycles. New businesses must stay informed about the evolving expectations of Wall Street analysts and historical data to make informed decisions.
Anticipating Market Changes
The potential trough in earnings and the projected growth indicate that businesses should be prepared for market changes. They should have strategies in place to navigate both the downturns and upturns in the market.

Adapting to Market Conditions

The analysis also highlights the need for businesses to adapt to market conditions. With the global revision ratio indicating a risk-on sentiment and strong macro data, businesses should be ready to seize opportunities when they arise.


In conclusion, the positive outlook for earnings offers a "hot take" for new businesses. It emphasizes the importance of understanding market trends, anticipating market changes, and adapting to market conditions. As the economy shows signs of improvement, new businesses can leverage these insights to navigate their path to growth and success.
Story First Published at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/01/in-another-positive-sign-for-stocks-the-trough-for-earnings-this-cycle-is-likely-in-.html
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