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FDA Advises Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax to Target Omicron Subvariant
Overview
The US Food and Drug Administration has announced that it wants the next round of Covid-19 shots to target the omicron subvariant XBB.1.5, one of the most immune-evasive Covid-19 variants to date. The FDA's move represents a significant win for Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax, who are gearing up to compete with one another. The three companies have started developing versions of their vaccines targeting XBB.1.5 months ahead of the FDA's decision. Last week, the companies presented preliminary data indicating that their jabs produce strong immune responses against all XBB variants. The FDA's strain selection means that the companies will not need to scramble to manufacture shots targeting an entirely different strain, which could delay the timing of delivery.
Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax's Race Against Time
While Pfizer has stated that it will be able to deliver a shot targeting XBB.1.5 by July, Moderna and Novavax have not provided specific timelines for their versions. Still, the FDA's decision means that all three companies will likely deliver their updated jabs on time. According to Dr. Melinda Wharton, a senior official at the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, the shots targeting XBB.1.5 "seem the most feasible to get across the finish line early without resulting in delays in availability."
Why the Commercial Market is Important to Vaccine Developers
The US is expected to shift Covid vaccine distribution to the private sector as soon as the fall, wherein the federal government's supply of free shots is presumed to run out. Manufacturers will sell their updated jabs directly to health-care providers rather than to the government. This move is an opportunity for Pfizer and Moderna to tap into more distribution channels than they did under government contracts. Still, both companies predict that their Covid-related sales will decline this year as the world emerges from the pandemic, and fewer individuals rely on vaccines and treatments. For Novavax, the commercial market is crucial to its survival through 2023 and the years beyond. The company hopes to capture a share of the commercial market after lagging behind Pfizer and Moderna.
Sales Revenue Projections
While Moderna expects a minimum of $5 billion in revenue from its Covid-19 vaccine, its only available product, Pfizer is anticipating that its Covid-19 shot revenue will fall to $13.5 billion this year from $37.8 billion in 2022. Novavax has projected $1.06 billion to $1.24 billion in sales of its Covid-19 vaccine this year, which is slightly lower than the $1.5 billion it generated last year.
Americans' Willingness to Take Updated Vaccines
Despite the FDA's decision, it remains unclear how many Americans will get their shots later this year. Only around 17% of the US population, which is around 56 million people, have received Pfizer and Moderna's latest boosters since their approval in September 2022.
The FDA's call for Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax to target the omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 represents a clear win for the vaccine makers as they compete against one another. With the commercial market opening up soon, Pfizer and Moderna are looking to tap into more distribution channels than they did under government contracts. Meanwhile, Novavax sees the commercial market as crucial to its survival. However, it remains unclear how many Americans are willing to roll up their sleeves for another round of vaccines.
The FDA's move to advise Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax to target the omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 of Covid-19 represents a significant win for the vaccine makers. These three companies have started developing versions of their vaccines targeting XBB.1.5 months ahead of the FDA's decision, meaning that all three are likely to deliver updated jabs on time. Shifting the Covid vaccine distribution to the private sector as soon as the fall will be a crucial turning point as it will offer Pfizer and Moderna more opportunities to tap into more distribution channels than they did under government contracts. At the same time, Novavax sees the commercial market as crucial to its survival. However, despite the FDA's call, it remains unclear how many Americans are willing to roll up their sleeves for another round of vaccines. Only around 17% of the US population have received Pfizer and Moderna's latest boosters since their approval in September 2022, which could have an impact on vaccine sales revenue projections. As the world moves forward from the pandemic, these companies may have to look beyond vaccine sales to stay relevant in an evolving market.
