The Scarcity Crisis in Spotlight: Deadly Border Flare-up between Afghanistan and Iran Puts Water Shortage in Focus

Iran and Afghanistan Clash Over Dwindling Water Supply

Iran and Afghanistan are locked in a dispute over the dwindling supply of water, which has fuelled tension along their border. The Helmand river flowing into Iran from Afghanistan is at the center of the dispute as Tehran accuses the Taliban government of intentionally reducing Iran's water supply to boost its own. The Taliban claims that its government is equally affected as a result of the decline caused by a reduction in rainfall and river levels. The clash between Iranian and Afghan guards on May 27 brought attention to the region's water issues, which could destabilize Iran's already-poor and water-scarce region.

The Impending Crisis

The scarcity of water could trigger large-scale civil unrest in Iran, as witnessed in protests against the government over water shortages and subsequent power outages in the western Khuzestan province in the summer of 2021. The demonstrations, which spread to several cities, drew heavy government crackdown leading to police and civilian casualties. A water security crisis in eastern Iran would further add to the government's challenges as they remain under U.S. sanctions, struggling with a weak economy and an ongoing anti-government protest movement.

The Porous Border

The 580-mile porous Afghanistan-Iran border is a major point of entry for smuggling crimes, including drugs, human trafficking, and terrorism, mostly from Afghanistan. The Taliban government derives most of its revenue from illicit businesses. Therefore, the water crisis is just one of the many issues that continue to create tension on the Afghanistan-Iran border.

Backstory of the Conflict

The 1950s saw the construction of two major dams in Afghanistan, restricting the water flow from the Helmand river into Iran. The development angered Iran, leading to the signing of a 1973 treaty that allocated Iran 850 million cubic meters of Helmand water yearly. Unfortunately, the treaties were never fully implemented due to decades of wars and government changes in both countries. Since then, the countries have almost gone to war on several occasions.

Climate Change & Conflict

Climate change increases the risk of wars and refugee crises as countries scramble for natural resources essential for survival. In this case, the conflict is a competition for a scarce resource that neither side can live without. The disagreements over water allotment in the Helmand river are yet to be resolved as issues such as climate change and overfarming worsen the situation in an already extremely dry area.

The continuing water crisis between Iran and Afghanistan, especially along their porous border, remains a significant challenge for both countries. It is unlikely that the issue will be resolved anytime soon due to the need for expensive infrastructure investments. The ongoing conflict could harm Afghanistan's farming output, worsen food shortages and further damage its already frail economy. Additionally, it could also lead to civil unrest in the water-scarce region and ultimately destabilize Iran.
The water crisis between Iran and Afghanistan along their porous border could have a significant impact on new businesses looking to operate in the region. The scarcity of water is a major concern for businesses reliant on water, such as agriculture and manufacturing. Restrictions on the water supply would exacerbate these challenges, leading to increased production costs and, ultimately, decreased profitability. Additionally, civil unrest, as witnessed in the protests against the Iranian government over water scarcity, could disrupt business operations, leading to further losses.

As climate change exacerbates the scarcity of water in the region, new businesses should consider their water use and management strategies to ensure sustainable operations. Investments in water conservation and alternative water sources could help mitigate the risks associated with a dwindling water supply. Additionally, businesses could explore other regions that have a more stable water supply to avoid the risks associated with operating in a water-scarce region.

Ultimately, the ongoing water crisis between Iran and Afghanistan could impact the stability of the region and the operations of new businesses. Proactive measures, such as investing in alternative water sources and evaluating water management strategies, could help navigate these challenges and avoid the risks associated with a dwindling water supply.