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Ukrainian Forces May Exploit Wagner Rebellion to Push Back Russian Invasion
After the collapse of the insurrection led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is known as the infamous boss of the Wagner private militia group, Russian military leadership's confusion could considerably weaken their war effort against Ukraine. This rebellion posed a significant challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's grip on power. The Wagner group, being the most capable group in Russia's military in Ukraine to date, will almost certainly be disbanded and absorbed into the Russian army. This article outlines the implications of this failed insurrection on the ongoing situation in Ukraine.
Ukrainian Forces Can Take Advantage of Wagner Rebellion
John Barranco, an expert on military affairs, said the Wagner rebellion could not have come at a better time for Ukraine. Barranco said that once an army loses confidence in its leadership, the morale falls through the floor, and the will to fight often goes with it. He also believed that confusion would make fighting even more difficult for the Russians. Whatever Prigozhin's real motivations are, or the outcome of his revolt and then apparent about-face, a few things remain clear: Massive amounts of confusion have been sown in Russia's rear area, and whatever confidence rank and file Russian soldiers had left in their leadership is gone.
Opportunity for Ukrainian Counteroffensive
After over 16 months of fighting, the recent turn of events will likely provide Ukraine's military leadership with a critical advantage. Barranco said the best chance of forcing Russia back from their 600 miles of layered fighting positions in the country would be to seek a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. Even the most audacious among the Ukrainian military leadership did not envision launching an attack on Russia's Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, where Russia's war in Ukraine is being run. Still, that is precisely what the Wagner Group's sudden rebellion has done.
Implications on the Security of Moscow's Nuclear Arsenal
Former British ambassador to Russia, Tony Brenton, said that the likelihood of nuclear weapons being deployed in Ukraine was "pretty close to zero." However, Putin has previously stated that he may be willing to resort to using nuclear weapons, and this prospect could arise if Russia's full-scale invasion goes existentially wrong. But, according to Brenton, the level of political instability in Russia is not at the level where officials need to worry about nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands.
In this critical time amidst the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the recent developments in the Wagner rebellion could significantly impact the situation. As Ukraine's military leadership seizes an opportunity to push back against the Russian invasion, it offers new possibilities for businesses looking to enter the Ukrainian market. Ukraine's potential counteroffensive could bring progress and newfound confidence to the country economically, potentially opening doors for international investment and business opportunities. However, businesses should also remain cautious about the instability of the region, and the potential impact on political and economic stability, especially given that the Putin administration has previously suggested nuclear force as a possibility in the current conflict. As Tony Brenton pointed out, the risk may be relatively low, but a continued conflict could lead to heightened instability, making it increasingly challenging for businesses to operate successfully. In any case, the recent events have undoubtedly created a hotly contested political environment that could have far-reaching effects on businesses and investors interested in the region, making it all the more important for them to pay close attention to developments as they unfold.
Article First Published at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/26/russia-ukraine-war-what-next-after-the-wagner-rebellion-against-putin.html
