Sweden's Final Stage for NATO Membership at Risk Due to Potential Hindrance from Turkey

Turkey's Objection to Sweden's NATO Membership and Its Consequences

Turkey's Objection as a Leveraging Tool

Turkey's objection to Sweden's NATO membership is not just about Sweden's support for Kurdish groups that Turkey considers terrorists, but also a way for Turkey to flex its muscles and win concessions from other countries. As a member of NATO with the second-largest military in the alliance, Turkey is using its position to remind the West that its demands must be taken seriously. However, this strategy comes with risks as it could strain relations with Western allies and potentially harm Turkey's fragile economy.

Erdogan's Stance and Demands

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a key player in Turkey's objection to Sweden's NATO membership. While the US has urged Turkey to drop its objection, Erdogan is pushing for a sale of F-16 fighter jets for the Turkish military. There is speculation that Turkey may use the jets as leverage in exchange for potential approval for Sweden's NATO membership. However, US officials have stated that the two demands are unrelated.

The Stakes for Turkey, Sweden, and NATO

The outcome of Turkey's objection to Sweden's NATO membership has significant consequences for all parties involved. Sweden and NATO both have a lot to gain from Sweden's membership, while Turkey's decision will shape its relationship with the West and impact its already fragile economy. The approval of new defense plans and the announcement of a new NATO member are expected to take place at the summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11.

The Strategic Messaging and National Security Interests

Some experts argue that Turkey's objection is more than just a tactical move; it is a strategic message to Europe and the EU. Turkey wants to assert its national security interests and remind the EU of its significance as the second-largest army in NATO. Turkey's stance can also be seen in the context of its relationship with Russia, as it operates as a mediator and refuses to adopt Western sanctions against Russia. Overall, Turkey's objection to Sweden's NATO membership is part of a broader dance Ankara is performing between Russia and NATO.

The Economic Risks and Uncertain Future

Turkey's objection to Sweden's NATO membership poses economic risks for Turkey, which is already facing challenges such as high inflation and a depreciating currency. If Turkey does not approve Sweden's membership, it risks a major break in relations with the West, which could have negative implications for its already vulnerable macroeconomy. The decision on Sweden's membership is crucial for Turkey, as it is a defining moment that will shape Turkey-NATO relations.

Conclusion: Implications for a New Business

The ongoing dispute between Turkey and Sweden regarding Sweden's NATO membership has significant implications for a new business operating in the region. The uncertainty surrounding Turkey's objection and its potential impact on relations with the West could create an unstable business environment with potential economic risks. Firstly, strained relations with Western allies could result in trade disruptions and hinder business operations. The possibility of a major break in relations with the West due to Turkey's objection to Sweden's NATO membership poses a significant risk for businesses that heavily rely on international trade and partnerships. This could lead to decreased market access, disrupted supply chains, and limited growth opportunities for new businesses. Moreover, Turkey's fragile economy, already grappling with challenges like high inflation and a depreciating currency, could be further affected if the objection escalates tensions with the West. A deteriorating macroeconomic environment could impact consumer confidence, limit investment opportunities, and increase business costs. New businesses may face additional hurdles in establishing themselves and achieving sustainable growth under such conditions. Additionally, the strategic messaging and national security interests that Turkey is asserting in this objection could introduce geopolitical complexities. The delicate dance between Turkey, Russia, and NATO raises questions about the long-term stability and geopolitical landscape of the region. These complexities can create uncertainty for new businesses, making it difficult to plan for the future and assess potential risks and opportunities. In conclusion, the objection to Sweden's NATO membership by Turkey has far-reaching consequences that can impact the business environment in the region. Any new business should be cautious and consider the potential risks and uncertainties that may arise from strained relations, an unstable economy, and evolving geopolitical dynamics in order to navigate these challenges successfully. Article First Published at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/10/sweden-is-in-final-stretch-for-nato-membership-will-turkey-derail-it.html